By Kalshi traders put a Tesla SpaceX merger at 56% before May 2027 and only 11% before the end of this month, and both companies report earnings inside the next 48 hours. The market has taken about $1.67 million in volume and did most of its repricing in the week of 13 October, after Barclays raised the prospect of an announcement within weeks.
Scale is what has turned a recurring piece of speculation into a live question for both shareholder bases. SpaceX carries a $2.01 trillion valuation against Tesla’s $1.46 trillion, and it spent $15.8 billion on AI capacity in the second quarter alone while Tesla is burning cash to keep pace. The two sets of numbers land on consecutive evenings, which is why a Tesla SpaceX merger is the question hanging over both calls.
Nothing has been filed on either side that would start a formal Tesla SpaceX merger process. No merger agreement, no special committee and no regulatory submission exists, and ARK Invest said plainly in its own valuation work that its Tesla model treats the company as standalone.
Kalshi Prices a Tesla SpaceX Merger at 11% This Month and 56% by May 2027
The contract ladder is the part worth reading rather than any single headline number. Kalshi quoted 42% before 1 March 2027, 49% before 1 April and 56% before 1 May at midday on Tuesday, with the near-dated contract on a combination before 1 November sitting at 11%. Traders are pricing a Tesla SpaceX merger that arrives eventually rather than one that arrives this quarter.
All three dated contracts repriced in the week of 13 October, climbing from the low 30s and low 40s to a peak near 59% before giving back part of the move. Kalshi’s rules set a high bar for any of them to pay out, requiring a definitive, binding agreement announced through official channels, and they state that a comment from Musk counts only if it amounts to “an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement.”
Kalshi’s dated contracts on a Tesla SpaceX merger all jumped in mid-October and have held most of that move. Source: KalshiInvestor Takeaway
Kalshi prices a Tesla SpaceX merger at 11% before 1 November against 56% before May 2027, so the money is on a slow deal rather than an imminent one.
SpaceX Reports Tuesday Night and Tesla Follows on Wednesday
SpaceX publishes third quarter results after the close on Tuesday, its second report as a public company, with Tesla following on Wednesday, Reuters reported. Analysts polled by LSEG expect SpaceX revenue of about $12.74 billion and earnings of 14 cents a share, against Tesla’s adjusted 43 cents on roughly $27.88 billion. Options on SpaceX imply a 7.8% move either way, a range of $134.64 to $157.42, and Tesla SpaceX merger questions are likely on both calls.
Capital spending is the line both of these reports are going to turn on. SpaceX put $15.8 billion into AI capacity in the second quarter alone, and Evercore ISI expects about $151 billion of capex in 2027 against an exit-2026 annualized revenue run rate near $104 billion. Tesla will spend more than $25 billion this year and analysts expect negative free cash flow of $4.92 billion for the quarter, after a delivery beat of 486,532 vehicles that has not stopped the stock falling about 17% in 2026.
Barclays Put a Tesla SpaceX Merger Before the 3 December Annual Meeting
Barclays told clients a deal could be announced before Tesla’s annual meeting on 3 December, with SpaceX the likelier acquirer of the two. Under an all-stock structure the bank sketched, Musk would hold about 37% of the combined equity and 56% of the votes, which keeps control without requiring him to buy it.
The market capitalizations of the two companies already point in the same direction. SpaceX closed Monday at $147.96 for a $2.01 trillion valuation, against Tesla at $368.99 and $1.46 trillion in Tuesday morning trade. Shawn Campbell of Camelthorn Investments, who owns both, told Reuters a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla “would be cleaner,” partly because it would leave the China business as a separate asset to handle.
ARK Models $3.8 Trillion of Combined Revenue by 2031
ARK Invest published a Tesla valuation on 19 October putting the shares at about $4,400 by 2031, with a $5,000 bull case and $3,300 bear case, and put a Tesla SpaceX merger inside its five-year horizon. Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire estimate the two together would generate $3.8 trillion of revenue and $2.7 trillion of EBIT by 2031.
The split inside those numbers matters more than the total for anyone thinking about an exchange ratio. SpaceX would contribute roughly 62% of the revenue and 69% of the EBIT, which puts the rocket and connectivity business ahead of the carmaker on both lines by the end of the decade. ARK built the price target without the deal, so the combined figures sit alongside the model rather than inside it.
ARK’s Tesla SpaceX merger scenario has SpaceX supplying most of the revenue and more of the profit by 2031. Source: ARK Invest · Chart: FinanceFeedsInvestor Takeaway
ARK’s $4,400 Tesla target excludes any Tesla SpaceX merger, so the combined $3.8 trillion scenario is additional to the price target rather than the basis for it.
Musk Has Not Confirmed a Process and Only the xAI Deal Has Closed
Musk declined to rule out a combination on the July earnings call while saying it would need “the appropriate process,” and the arithmetic of what Tesla holders would need to accept has not changed since. SpaceX absorbed xAI in February before its June listing, which is the only Musk consolidation that has actually closed. That transaction combined two private companies four months before SpaceX listed, a lighter process than merging two public shareholder registers and two boards.
The bull and bear ranges on SpaceX and Tesla still model the two names apart, and a Tesla SpaceX merger would force both sets of numbers to be rebuilt from the exchange ratio up. Until a definitive agreement exists, Tuesday and Wednesday are the only scheduled moments at which either management can say something that moves the Kalshi ladder.
