Silver prices enter the first week of November below $50 an ounce after COMEX December futures settled at $49.276 on Friday, October 30, down 5.93% for the session and approximately 18.34% for October. The decline leaves traders facing two potential market-moving events this week: the US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, and the October employment report on Friday, November 6.The central question is whether October’s selling has exhausted itself or whether expectations of another Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in December will keep precious metals under pressure. Silver has fallen substantially faster than gold, while the gold-to-silver ratio has approached 79, reflecting the white metal’s weaker performance.Friday’s decline also coincided with a sharp technology-stock selloff, complicating the explanation for the latest move. Higher interest-rate expectations have weighed on bullion throughout October, but analysts also pointed to forced selling and margin calls as possible contributors to the final session’s losses.
Silver Price Settles at $49.276 After an 18% October Decline
CME Group’s October 30 metals bulletin recorded the December silver futures settlement at $49.276 per troy ounce, down $3.104 from Thursday’s $52.380 settlement. The contract traded between $48.895 and $52.315 during Friday’s session.The 18.34% monthly decline in the December contract is considerably larger than the loss reported earlier in the week. FinanceFeeds’ October 30 analysis of the gold and silver price drop recorded silver down more than 14% based on Friday-morning observations. The subsequent selloff pushed the completed-month decline beyond 18%.Gold also finished October sharply lower. December COMEX gold futures settled Friday at $3,898.90, down 3.29% for the day and approximately 6.9% for the month. Silver’s monthly decline was therefore more than twice as large as gold’s, using comparable December futures contracts.The latest settlement gives investors a clearer reference point than the $52-$53 prices quoted earlier in the week. The question entering Monday is no longer simply whether silver can defend $53, but whether it can recover the $50 threshold after trading below $49 on Friday.
Dollar Strength, Fed Rate Expectations and Gold’s Break Below $4,000
October’s decline followed a shift toward expectations of tighter US monetary policy. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest-rate range at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28, but two officials, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, voted for an immediate quarter-point increase.The decision left a December hike firmly in consideration. FinanceFeeds’ October 30 coverage cited CME FedWatch pricing of a 74.9% probability of a quarter-point increase in December, while Metals Focus had reported expectations closer to 80% the previous evening. Those were dated market estimates, not a Federal Reserve commitment.Higher expected interest rates can increase Treasury yields and support the US dollar, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as silver and gold. The dollar strengthened over October, while elevated energy prices added to concerns that inflation could remain persistent.However, Friday’s decline cannot be explained by currency movements alone. Reuters reported that the technology-stock selloff may have contributed to liquidation across precious metals as investors sought cash or covered leveraged positions. Commerzbank analysts also identified possible margin-related selling.Gold’s break below $4,000 illustrated the pressure across the sector. December futures ended below $3,900, while spot gold finished near $3,876. FinanceFeeds examined the broader selloff in its gold price outlook following the October decline.Whether the metals recover will depend partly on whether investors continue raising their expectations for interest rates or whether the final October session proves to have included a temporary wave of forced selling.
November 3 Midterms and November 6 Jobs Report
Tuesday’s US midterm elections are the first major event on the week’s calendar. The result will determine the balance of power in Congress and could influence expectations for fiscal policy, government spending and the administration’s ability to advance its legislative agenda.There is no automatic direction for silver following an election. The relevant market reaction will depend on how investors interpret the outcome for Treasury yields, the dollar and future fiscal policy. Political uncertainty could support demand for precious metals, while a stronger dollar or higher yields could work in the opposite direction.Tuesday also brings the September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10 a.m. ET. That release may provide an earlier indication of labour-market conditions before Friday’s more closely watched employment data.The Bureau of Labor Statistics has scheduled the October employment report for Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Investors will examine nonfarm payroll growth, unemployment and average hourly earnings for clues about the Federal Reserve’s December decision.Stronger employment and wage growth could reinforce expectations that policymakers have room to raise rates again. Weaker figures could reduce those expectations, potentially easing pressure on precious metals. The reaction will also depend on whether the data point toward cooling inflation or a more substantial deterioration in economic activity.
Gold-to-Silver Ratio Near 79 as Industrial Demand Weakens
Silver’s underperformance has pushed the gold-to-silver ratio higher. Using Friday’s December futures settlements of $3,898.90 for gold and $49.276 for silver produces a ratio of approximately 79.1. This means one ounce of gold was worth roughly 79 ounces of silver on that contract comparison.Metals Focus noted last week that the ratio had moved above 76, compared with a range of 60-70 during the summer. The consultancy identified an average near 82 for the 2020-2025 period, leaving further room for silver to underperform gold if that relationship continues to widen.The physical-demand picture adds another complication. The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026 forecasts a sixth consecutive annual market deficit of approximately 46.3 million ounces. Nevertheless, industrial silver demand is expected to decline by 3%, partly because solar manufacturers are reducing the amount of silver used in photovoltaic cells.Demand from data centers, AI infrastructure and automotive applications remains a source of longer-term support, but those segments are not expected to fully offset weakness in other industrial categories during 2026.A structural supply deficit can coexist with falling prices when investment demand weakens or above-ground inventories become more readily available. The gold-to-silver ratio will help indicate whether buyers are returning to silver specifically or whether any recovery is simply following gold.
Silver Price Levels to Watch in the Coming Week
The immediate reference is $50, which silver failed to defend on Friday. A recovery above that level would bring the $52-$53 area back into focus, including Thursday’s $52.380 December futures settlement.FXEmpire analyst Muhammad Umair previously identified the $48-$50 region as an important support area. Friday’s low of $48.895 placed the market inside that zone. He also identified $60 as a more substantial upside resistance level, although the market would first need to recover the nearer levels lost in October.Below $48, the next area identified in Umair’s earlier technical analysis lies around $45-$46. This is an attributed chart scenario rather than a confirmed price target, and a move into that range would require further selling beyond Friday’s settlement.Other analysts have offered less directional forecasts. TD Securities’ Bart Melek outlined a $50-$55 silver range, while HSBC maintained a more optimistic $70 year-end target despite concerns that recovering investment demand may not be sufficient to generate a sustained rally.The week begins with silver below several previously watched support levels and a Federal Reserve decision still five weeks away. Tuesday’s election may change the broader risk environment, but Friday’s employment figures offer a more direct test of the interest-rate expectations weighing on bullion.A return above $50 would be an initial sign of stabilization, not proof that October’s decline has ended. Continued weakness below Friday’s $48.895 low, particularly alongside a rising gold-to-silver ratio, would instead indicate that selling pressure remains unresolved.
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