Canada Says Sports Prediction Markets Sit Outside…

Canadian securities regulators have drawn a new line through the prediction-market sector. Sports and entertainment event contracts should sit outside securities and derivatives legislation, according to Joint CSA-CIRO Staff Notice 91-307, but investment dealers supervised by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization will not be approved to offer them.The 27 August guidance does not open sports prediction markets to Canadian brokerages. It removes one possible regulatory route while leaving other federal, provincial or territorial frameworks in play. Economic, environmental and financial-indicator contracts remain available through a much narrower securities-dealer channel, subject to product, maturity and leverage restrictions.

Sports Contracts Leave the Securities Perimeter

Event contracts settle according to a future occurrence and can be structured with a fixed or contingent payout. Their broad definitions can bring them within securities, derivatives or commodity-futures laws, but the CSA notice recognises that some instruments may fall outside that framework depending on their facts and circumstances.For sports and entertainment outcomes, CSA staff gave a direct conclusion: those products should not be regulated under securities and derivatives legislation. CIRO staff then stated that they do not consider it appropriate to facilitate or approve an application by dealer members to trade them.Stan Magidson, CSA Chair and Alberta Securities Commission Chair and CEO, said: “Event contracts based on sports- or entertainment-related activities or outcomes should not be regulated within securities and derivatives legislation.”The notice does not provide a detailed legal test explaining that conclusion. It also does not classify the contracts as lawful gaming products or give an operator permission to serve Canadian users. Instead, it says event contracts may fall under another regulatory framework applicable in a province or territory. A platform cannot treat the absence of securities regulation as the absence of regulation.

Interactive Brokers and Wealthsimple Keep a Narrow Route

CIRO has authorised two investment dealers to facilitate event-contract trading: Interactive Brokers Canada and Wealthsimple. The CIRO dealer record for Interactive Brokers Canada confirms its event-contract authorisation, while Wealthsimple describes itself as the second securities dealer to receive approval.The permitted universe is limited to economic forecasts, environmental forecasts and financial indicators. Examples include inflation, central-bank rates, labour-market data, housing statistics, global temperature measures and contracts settling from the daily price of US equity-index futures. Contracts must trade and clear through certain US-regulated exchanges and clearing houses.Interactive Brokers introduced Forecast Contracts to Canadian clients in April 2025. Its current Canadian prediction-market page advertises economic, finance and climate outcomes. Wealthsimple announced in June that its separate Predict app would connect users to a subset of Kalshi listings, with nearly 4,000 contracts across authorised categories planned for the launch.The Canadian pathway is therefore an access model rather than approval of a domestic prediction exchange. The CSA and CIRO said in April that no prediction market had been recognised as an exchange, registered as a dealer or exempted from those requirements in Canada. Canadian dealers can provide controlled access to selected contracts on foreign regulated venues.

The 30-Day Rule Removes Fast Markets

The CIRO terms published on 26 March require every permitted event contract to have at least 30 days to maturity. Creating a new threshold is treated as creating a new contract, so a platform cannot evade the rule by relisting a similar question with a shorter remaining period.The restriction aligns with Multilateral Instrument 91-102. In participating provinces, the rule prohibits advertising, offering, selling or otherwise trading a binary option with less than 30 days to maturity to an individual. The CIRO condition independently applies to the authorised dealer members.Clients also cannot use leverage or margin for event contracts. Dealers must perform due diligence on the listings they make available and file a material-change application before expanding beyond the three approved categories. The structure removes many contracts responsible for the rapid turnover seen on global platforms, including near-term data releases and event questions created shortly before resolution.

Political Contracts Remain Prohibited

Sports and entertainment contracts are not the only unavailable categories. CIRO’s March conditions already prohibited election, political-party leadership, referendum and other political-event contracts. Products tied to unlawful activity under Canadian federal, provincial or territorial law are also prohibited.The new notice does not decide the regulatory status of every category between politics and financial indicators. CSA and CIRO staff said the assessment of other event contracts is continuing and further guidance will follow. Existing dealer terms may also be tightened or otherwise changed.That produces three distinct buckets for Canadian dealer apps. Economic, environmental and financial contracts have a conditional securities route. Political contracts are expressly prohibited. Sports and entertainment contracts are now outside the securities perimeter and also unavailable through CIRO dealers. Other subjects remain unresolved.

Canada Avoids the US Sports Jurisdiction Fight

The Canadian split differs from the federal model being contested in the United States. US platforms have listed sports event contracts through exchanges supervised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, prompting states to argue that the products are wagers subject to local gaming law. Plus500, for example, has distributed Kalshi sports contracts to US retail clients.The dispute has moved into several courts. A federal judge allowed New York’s case against Kalshi to proceed, while state and federal authorities continue to contest whether commodities law displaces gambling regulation. The CFTC is also developing a broader rulebook for prediction markets.Canadian securities regulators have avoided importing that conflict into the dealer channel. Their position prevents an authorised investment dealer from arguing that CIRO oversight is enough to distribute sports contracts. Any operator pursuing that category would need to determine the applicable gaming and other legal requirements outside this notice.

What the Guidance Means for Brokers

For Canadian brokers, the immediate consequence is product governance. A connection to a US-regulated exchange does not make every contract listed on that venue eligible for Canadian clients. Dealers must filter the catalogue by subject, maturity and legality, block leverage and maintain approval for any material expansion.The commercial gap with the United States will remain substantial. US brokers and institutional intermediaries are adding sports, economics and other contracts, while Cantor Fitzgerald has opened block trading on Kalshi and risk platforms are bringing event probabilities into institutional portfolio analysis. Canadian dealer distribution is confined to a smaller set with an arguable financial or risk-management connection.The guidance gives sports contracts a clearer classification but does not provide a complete route to market. For Interactive Brokers and Wealthsimple, it confirms that the approved Canadian product remains economics, climate and financial indicators. For other brokers, sports cannot be added as another derivative tab under an existing CIRO membership.