By Shares of Amazon rose about 2.3% on Wednesday as investors positioned ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings report, with markets closely watching cloud growth, artificial intelligence spending, and the potential impact of geopolitical tensions on consumer demand.
The e-commerce and cloud giant is scheduled to report results after the market close, with expectations running high across multiple business segments.
AI spending and capex under scrutiny
A central focus for investors will be Amazon’s aggressive investment in artificial intelligence, which has raised both optimism and concern on Wall Street.
Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $1.63 per share, slightly above $1.59 reported a year earlier, while revenue is projected to reach $177.3 billion, up from $155.7 billion.
However, investor attention is likely to center on capital expenditure trends.
First-quarter purchases of property and equipment are expected to total $43.6 billion, a sharp increase from $25 billion a year ago, reflecting the company’s expanding AI infrastructure commitments.
Amazon’s previous guidance that it could spend as much as $200 billion on AI in 2026 has already unsettled some shareholders.
Markets will be looking for clarity on whether those projections will increase further, particularly as competition intensifies across the AI ecosystem.
AWS growth key to AI narrative
Growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains critical to the broader investment case. The cloud unit is expected to generate $36.6 billion in revenue for the quarter, representing a 25% year-over-year increase.
Investors are seeking evidence that heavy AI investments are translating into meaningful returns, particularly as enterprises ramp up spending on data infrastructure and machine learning capabilities.
Amazon’s expanding relationship with OpenAI is also in focus.
The two companies recently announced a broader partnership, enabling AWS customers to access OpenAI’s models via Amazon Bedrock.
This follows the end of OpenAI’s exclusive arrangement with Microsoft, opening the door for increased competition among cloud providers.
UBS analyst Stephen Ju highlighted the strategic importance of this move, noting that AWS’s integration of OpenAI models strengthens its position and reduces the likelihood of customers shifting workloads to rival platforms.
Consumer demand and geopolitical risks
Beyond cloud and AI, Amazon’s core retail business remains a key barometer of consumer health.
Investors are closely monitoring spending trends, particularly as rising oil prices linked to the Iran conflict threaten to weigh on inflation and purchasing power.
While recent data suggests consumer demand has remained resilient, higher energy costs could pressure Amazon’s margins, especially through increased shipping and logistics expenses.
“While our e-commerce estimates remain unchanged we contemplate higher operating (namely shipping) costs,” UBS analyst Stephen Ju wrote on April 23.
At the same time, Amazon continues to expand its enterprise offerings beyond traditional e-commerce.
UBS pointed to growth in products such as Amazon Connect, which has surpassed $1 billion in revenue and expanded into additional use cases, including supply chain management, hiring, and healthcare administration.
The company has also introduced Amazon Quick, a desktop AI productivity tool designed to integrate with platforms such as Google Workspace and Microsoft 365, positioning it as a competitor to enterprise AI tools like Gemini and Copilot.
With shares already up 40% over the past year, expectations remain elevated.
As a result, Amazon’s upcoming earnings report is likely to serve as a critical test of whether its AI-driven growth strategy can continue to justify its rising investment levels and premium valuation.
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